All data concerning the serologic tests to AD performed in the period 1997-2004 on the breeding animals were collected according to the National control programme (Ministry Decree April 1st, 1997). Besides, mortality rates connected with Aujeszky disease for each breeding plant were taken into consideration; deaths not due to this disease were noted and birth rates were also recorded. Since the swine density in the Villafalletto and Vottignasco municipalities exceeds 3,200 units per square km, the entire population was assumed as belonging to one unique general epidemiological entity. On this basis, we built a mathematical model to simulate the epidemics behaviour. The evaluation of the biosecurity measures, together with the vaccination policy according to the regulations in effect, allowed us to show that the seroprevalence can be lowered to levels between 2% and 10%. These values would lead to eradication of AD with non prohibitive costs
Modellizzazione matematica della Malattia di Aujeszky in un'area ad altissima densità di allevamenti suini nella provincia di Cuneo.
DRIGO, MICHELE;MARTINI, MARCO;
2006
Abstract
All data concerning the serologic tests to AD performed in the period 1997-2004 on the breeding animals were collected according to the National control programme (Ministry Decree April 1st, 1997). Besides, mortality rates connected with Aujeszky disease for each breeding plant were taken into consideration; deaths not due to this disease were noted and birth rates were also recorded. Since the swine density in the Villafalletto and Vottignasco municipalities exceeds 3,200 units per square km, the entire population was assumed as belonging to one unique general epidemiological entity. On this basis, we built a mathematical model to simulate the epidemics behaviour. The evaluation of the biosecurity measures, together with the vaccination policy according to the regulations in effect, allowed us to show that the seroprevalence can be lowered to levels between 2% and 10%. These values would lead to eradication of AD with non prohibitive costsPubblicazioni consigliate
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