In this study we have compared the predictive ability of two phenological models: a traditional Thermal Time (TT) and a version of the more recently developed Unified Model (UM). Unlike TT, which quantifies the accumulation of heat units which trigger bud break and the subsequent development phases, the UM describes also the fulfillment of chilling requirements, predictiing the date of dormancy break, and implements a finer description of the plant development temperature-dependancy. The model were fitted and validated on phenological observations collected from 1986 to 2008 in a site of North-Eastern Italy, on the cultivars Glera, Chardonnay, Merlot and Cabernet Sauvignon. The UM fitted better to observations than TT, and yielded more accurate estimates on the validation dataset. In both models, the accuracy of estimates decreasedf from bud break to veraison.
Validation of phenological models for grapevine in the Veneto Region
MEGGIO, FRANCO;PITACCO, ANDREA
2010
Abstract
In this study we have compared the predictive ability of two phenological models: a traditional Thermal Time (TT) and a version of the more recently developed Unified Model (UM). Unlike TT, which quantifies the accumulation of heat units which trigger bud break and the subsequent development phases, the UM describes also the fulfillment of chilling requirements, predictiing the date of dormancy break, and implements a finer description of the plant development temperature-dependancy. The model were fitted and validated on phenological observations collected from 1986 to 2008 in a site of North-Eastern Italy, on the cultivars Glera, Chardonnay, Merlot and Cabernet Sauvignon. The UM fitted better to observations than TT, and yielded more accurate estimates on the validation dataset. In both models, the accuracy of estimates decreasedf from bud break to veraison.
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