The Kyoto Protocol of 1997 planned for all the subscribing countries a reduction of greenhouse gases by 5.2% with respect to the values of 1990. The production of electric energy through renewable energy systems is one of the ways to respect Kyoto limits. For this reasons, the countries that signed the protocol started to promote incentive policies for the adoption of these new technologies. The US, although not subscribers of the protocol, is also committed in some way to create renewable electric energy and, with respect to wind energy systems, is classified as one of the leading countries. Since when analyzing the capacity of installed wind turbines, it is important to compare similar geographic areas, we compare the US with Europe. Some leading European countries are also included in the analysis. Generalized Bass models are performed, detecting the effects of local incentive policies. In this work, we show how this class of models came first in the ranking of forecasting accuracy performance over a set of accuracy measures and forecasting horizons, when compared with the Standard Bass, Logistic, and Gompertz models.

Forecasting accuracy of the Generalized Bass Model versus the most widespread diffusion models in wind power system

DALLA VALLE, ALESSANDRA;FURLAN, CLAUDIA
2010

Abstract

The Kyoto Protocol of 1997 planned for all the subscribing countries a reduction of greenhouse gases by 5.2% with respect to the values of 1990. The production of electric energy through renewable energy systems is one of the ways to respect Kyoto limits. For this reasons, the countries that signed the protocol started to promote incentive policies for the adoption of these new technologies. The US, although not subscribers of the protocol, is also committed in some way to create renewable electric energy and, with respect to wind energy systems, is classified as one of the leading countries. Since when analyzing the capacity of installed wind turbines, it is important to compare similar geographic areas, we compare the US with Europe. Some leading European countries are also included in the analysis. Generalized Bass models are performed, detecting the effects of local incentive policies. In this work, we show how this class of models came first in the ranking of forecasting accuracy performance over a set of accuracy measures and forecasting horizons, when compared with the Standard Bass, Logistic, and Gompertz models.
Atti della XLV Riunione Scientifica della Società  Italiana di Statistica.
9788861295667
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Utilizza questo identificativo per citare o creare un link a questo documento: https://hdl.handle.net/11577/2446134
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