Microbiological quantitative risk assessment and food safety: An update

Quantitative Risk Assessment is one of three components of Risk Analysis (RA); the others being Risk Management and Risk Communication. The three components of risk analysis are not fully separated, but partly overlapping, due to the continuous exchange of information and data among all subjects who participate in the process. Risk assessment can be defined as a structured science-based process to estimate the likelihood and severity of risk with attendant uncertainty. Risk assessment models can be qualitative or quantitative. The uncertainty and variability are ignored in deterministic modeling; whereas in stochastic modeling they play an important role. The food industry and the national authorities responsible for food safety have different aims when applying microbiological QRA, HACCP or predictive modeling. Use of HACCP as a qualitative system for risk management has helped food manufacturers and food caterers to improve hygiene standards and to ensure a higher level of security in the final food product. HACCP is well adapted to defined and controlled production and preparation processes. However, for public heath authorities microbiological QRA may serve as a means to quantify the risk attributable to certain food products. The quantification of risk is much more important when the QRA studies are linked to public health objectives. The quantitative approach using public health measures, may allow comparison between the defined risk and other health risks and thus evaluation and implementation of the best risk control strategies proposed during the risk management phase. Finally, it is clear that industry, when implementing HACCP, may utilize the results of both microbiological QRA and predictive modeling for assessing whether a food product will be safe at the time of consumption. For the purpose of national health authorities, microbiological QRA is not so much about the production of safe food, but an evaluation of the health status of the population.