Stima dell’andamento della redditività delle piantagioni di pioppo alla luce delle politiche di settore

Estimating the profitability trends of poplar plantations under current sectorial public policies. Investments in poplar plantations in the Po valley (Northern Italy), the most important segment of timber production for the Italian forest-based sector, are undergoing a decline since more than two decades. The investment level is influenced by both economic variables directly related to the production, such as timber prices, management costs, and land costs, as well as external variables indirectly related to it, such as the opportunity cost of competitive agricultural productions, environmental restrictions, and the presence of subsidies. This paper presents the results of an analysis of trends in timber investment returns from poplar plantations in the Po Valley. In specific, we estimated how these returns have changed in the last 15 years (2001-2015) as a result of the evolution of the key variables of cost and timber price, and assuming a representative plantation management regime. The results show that, in the considered period, poplar timber investments have had a significant decline, with estimated Internal Rate of Returns dropped of 22.1%-44.2% from 2001 to 2015. In specific, the Internal Rates of Returns, when defined and in the base case scenario, ranged from values between 7.1% and 14.0% (2001) to 4.4%-11.0% (2015). Poplar plantations are offering interesting income opportunities only when average timber prices are high, while in all the other cases the investments are at the threshold of economic viability or even negative. The decreased profitability, together with the high variability of potential financial returns, are negatively influencing the attitude towards the investments in poplar plantations. These results are discussed in the light of the recent sectorial public policies. In particular, we focused on the Measures to support plantations of the regional Rural Development Plans, which often proved to be decisive for establishing new plantations and crucial in (de)stabilizing the sector. The lack of a strategic coordination among the northern Italian Regions and the discontinuity of subsidies schemes have contributed to the destabilization of the market.