Planning capacities of facilities and human resources for seniors

Physical environment, especially urban facilities that are age friendly can make a difference between independence and dependence for all individuals but are of particular importance for those growing older. Changes in the environment can lower the disability threshold. It influences the needs for care in each category of dependency measured by care dependency scale. Therefore the spatial interaction model developed individually for each group of functional capacity can be structured to forecast overall attractiveness and stickiness of municipalities for migration of older cohorts. The structure of cohorts, when disability thresholds are determined is calculated through a multi-state transition model where net migration of older cohorts is added for each year. The numerical example shows how we can plan the investments in facilities and education of human resources based on forecasted structure of care dependency categories and it’s dynamics.