A seismic loss estimation framework for enterprises taking into account business interruption

Recent seismic events have shown how industries and productive processes can be significantly vulnerable and suffer high financial losses in case of earthquake occurrence. For a proper estimation of potential losses of a production chain, it is therefore necessary to take into account both potential direct and business interruption losses. Several researchers dealt singularly with the loss assessment of seismic damages or the quantification of resilience for structural systems, but any comprehensive study focused on the seismic risk assessment of businesses was proposed. The aim of this work is to illustrate a novel probabilistic seismic risk assessment framework for enterprises, useful for the estimation of both direct and business interruption economic consequences, for any kind of productive chain. The framework is composed by modules in which seismic hazard, vulnerability, exposure and recovery are stochastically characterized and allows to quantify the expected annual direct, indirect and total losses suffered by a business in case of earthquake occurrence.