An awareness of the possible cliff position at some future date is fundamental to coastal planning and shoreline management, for example to avoid development in vulnerable areas. At the beginning, to predict cliff recession rates deterministic methods have been investigated. Then, recession predictions are being expressed in probabilistic terms. However, so far, only easy models were developed. We consider the cliff erosion at the Holderness Coast: since 1951 a monitoring program started in 118 stations along the coast, providing an invaluable, but often censored, source of information. We built hierarchical random effect models, taking account of the known dynamics of the process and including the censored information.

Erosione della costa di Holderness: costruzione di un modello gerarchico a effetti casuali per dati censurati

Furlan, Claudia
2005

Abstract

An awareness of the possible cliff position at some future date is fundamental to coastal planning and shoreline management, for example to avoid development in vulnerable areas. At the beginning, to predict cliff recession rates deterministic methods have been investigated. Then, recession predictions are being expressed in probabilistic terms. However, so far, only easy models were developed. We consider the cliff erosion at the Holderness Coast: since 1951 a monitoring program started in 118 stations along the coast, providing an invaluable, but often censored, source of information. We built hierarchical random effect models, taking account of the known dynamics of the process and including the censored information.
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Utilizza questo identificativo per citare o creare un link a questo documento: http://hdl.handle.net/11577/3442336
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