The presence of a slowdown in new products’ life cycle has recently received notable attention by many innovation diffusion scholars, that have tried to explain and model it on a typical dualmarket hypothesis. In this paper we propose an alternative explanation, based on the co–evolutionary model by Guseo and Guidolin, where diffusion results from the synergy between two driving forces: communication and adoption.We test the model on sales data of some pharmaceutical drugs presenting a slowdown in their life cycle. A deeper analysis of communication and adoption interaction, based on the likelihood ratio order can inform on which of the two had a driving role in early diffusion.

Market potential dynamics and diffusion od innovations: modelling synergy between two driving forces

GUSEO, RENATO;GUIDOLIN, MARIANGELA
2009

Abstract

The presence of a slowdown in new products’ life cycle has recently received notable attention by many innovation diffusion scholars, that have tried to explain and model it on a typical dualmarket hypothesis. In this paper we propose an alternative explanation, based on the co–evolutionary model by Guseo and Guidolin, where diffusion results from the synergy between two driving forces: communication and adoption.We test the model on sales data of some pharmaceutical drugs presenting a slowdown in their life cycle. A deeper analysis of communication and adoption interaction, based on the likelihood ratio order can inform on which of the two had a driving role in early diffusion.
S. Co. 2009 - sixth conference; Complex data modeling and computationally intensive statistical methods for estimation and prediction Politecnico di Milano, September 14-16, 2009 Proceedings
9788838743856
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Utilizza questo identificativo per citare o creare un link a questo documento: https://hdl.handle.net/11577/2482246
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