The application of a Bayesian approach to assess the seismic vulnerability of historical centers

The seismic vulnerability of historical centers at a territorial scale cannot be assessed performing detailed analysis which are usually adopted at the single building scale. In fact, a traditional complete survey would be extremely time-consuming and not sustainable for this purpose. The approach described in this paper is based on the idea that it is possible to infer quantities which cannot be directly detected from buildings outside inspection starting from parameters that can be measured. In order to achieve this purpose, a Bayesian approach is applied, updating initial hypotheses when new data become available. In this context, the procedure herein proposed aims at applying a probabilistic approach instead of a deterministic one to define facades inter-storey height starting from buildings height knowledge. In order to validate the method, for out of plane local mechanisms of collapse (walls overturning), horizontal loads multiplier 0 values are calculated and compared to results obtained by using data collected on-site.