Possible Location of the Next Major Earthquakes in the Northern Apennines: Present Key Role of the Romagna-Marche-Umbria Wedge

It is argued that in some zones of the Northern Apennines, in particular the Rimini-Ancona thrust system, the Romagna Apennines and the Alta Valtibe- rina trough, the probability of major earthquakes is now higher than in other Apennine zones. This hypothesis is suggested by the comparison of the present short-term kinematics of the Romagna-Marche-Umbria wedge in the Northern Apennines, deduced by the distribution of major shocks in the last tens of years, with the previous repeated behavior of the same wedge, evi- denced by the distribution of major earthquakes in the last seven centuries. The seismotectonics of the Apennine region here considered is closely con- nected with the larger context that involves the progressive migration (from south to north) of seismicity along the peri-Adriatic zones. The information provided by this study can be used to better manage the resources for preven- tion in Italy.