Long term interaction between dietary patterns and disease incidence: Evidence from Serbia

The objective of this study was to evaluate the relationship between dietary pattern and incidence of nutrition-related non-communicable diseases in Serbia, a country which has experienced a significant shift in nutrition and lifestyle habits, guided by its particular historical background and its rapid transition to liberal economy. Data was collected from annual reports published by the Statistical Office of the Republic of Serbia and the Institute of Public Health. It provides a focus on the timeframe of 1997-2014, in order to capture any changing pattern after the year 2000, in which the process of complete trade liberalization started.The results have shown a striking growing trend in both disease incidence on the one hand and processed food items such as processed meat, fruit juices, chocolate and biscuits and on the other hand. Granger causality test suggests that there exists causality that goes beyond spurious relationship between the disease of blood and blood-forming organs and immune system disorders and average per capita consumption of fruit and vegetables, poultry, processed meat, chocolates and biscuits and fruit juices. Also, we find evidence of long-term relationship between fish consumption and endocrine, metabolic and digestive diseases.