Topical distribution of initial paresis of the limbs to predict clinically relevant spasticity after ischemic stroke: a retrospective cohort study

Background. The degree of initial paresis relates to spasticity development in stroke patients. However, the importance of proximal and distal paresis in pre- dicting spasticity after stroke is unclear. Aim. To investigate the role of topical distribution of initial limb paresis to predict clinically relevant spas- ticity in adults with stroke. Design. Retrospective cohort study Methods. Seventy-two first-ever ischemic stroke patients were examined.At the acute phase of illness, demograph- ics and the European Stroke Scale motor items (mainte- nance of outstretched arm position, arm raising, wrist extension, grip strength, maintenance of outstretched leg position, leg flexion, foot dorsiflexion) were evalu- ated. At six months after the stroke onset, spasticity was assessed at the upper and lower limb with the modi- fied Ashworth Scale. Clinically relevant spasticity was defined as modified Ashworth Scale ≥3 (0-5). Results. The degree of initial paresis of the proximal muscles of the upper limb and the distal muscles of the lower limb showed the strongest association and the best profile of sensitivity-specificity in predicting clini- cally relevant spasticity at the upper and lower limb, respectively.Younger age showed higher risk for devel- oping clinically relevant spasticity in the upper limb. Conclusions. Our findings support the hypothesis that the initial degree of proximal paresis of the up- per limb and distal paresis of the lower limb as well as age may be considered early predictors of clinically relevant spasticity in adults with ischemic stroke. Clinical rehabilitation impact. Our findings further improve the role of initial paresis as predictor of spas- ticity after stroke.