Detecting Undiagnosed Diabetes: Proof-of-Concept Based on the Health-Information Exchange System of the Veneto Region (North-East Italy)

Diabetes is a chronic illness characterised by elevated blood glucose levels, driving excess mortality. Its prompt detection and accurate management are critical for delaying complications. Nevertheless, diabetes can remain undiagnosed for years from the onset. The identification of undiagnosed diabetes is a public health priority: in Italy, it is estimated that up to 30% of diabetes cases remain undetected, i.e., that ~1.8 million citizens may be unaware they need medical help. Sometimes, this happens even though these subjects undergo routine or emergency check-ups. Veneto, a region in North-East Italy with 4.9 million residents, implements a regional Health Information Exchange system (rHIE) to collect healthcare data, including laboratory reports, and integrate them with administrative claims. Their combination may be instrumental in finding otherwise undetected cases of diabetes. On the one hand, known diabetic patients should have disease management-generated claims; on the other, laboratory test results can be independently evaluated against diagnostic criteria. In the present work, we examined the anonymised claims and laboratory data, extracted from the rHIE, of 23,376 citizens of the Veneto region. We compared their exemptions, diabetes-related hospitalisation discharge codes, and antidiabetic drugs between 2012 and 2018 to the results of their fasting glucose, glycated haemoglobin, and oral glucose tolerance tests in 2017-2018. We identified 1,407 (6.02%) subjects who, according to administrative claims, appear to be free from diabetes, but met at least one laboratory diagnostic criterion. Such a discrepancy suggests that these people may be undiagnosed diabetic patients. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first proof of concept of an automatic system for the detection of undiagnosed diabetes in Italy. Its full integration in the rHIE and its consequent capillary application could potentially reveal thousands of hidden cases throughout Veneto.