This paper revisits the well-known VAR evidence on the real effects of uncertainty shocks by Bloom (Econometrica 2009(3): 623-685. doi: 10.3982/ECTA6248). We replicate the results in a narrow sense using Eviews and Matlab. In a wide sense, we extend his study by working with a smooth transition-VAR framework that allows for business cycle-dependent macroeconomic responses to an uncertainty shock. We find a significantly stronger response of real activity in recessions. Counterfactual simulations point to a greater e¤ectiveness of systematic monetary policy in stabilizing real activity in expansions.

Uncertainty and monetary policy in good and bad times: A Replication of the VAR investigation by Bloom (2009)

Giovanni Caggiano;Efrem Castelnuovo
;
2022

Abstract

This paper revisits the well-known VAR evidence on the real effects of uncertainty shocks by Bloom (Econometrica 2009(3): 623-685. doi: 10.3982/ECTA6248). We replicate the results in a narrow sense using Eviews and Matlab. In a wide sense, we extend his study by working with a smooth transition-VAR framework that allows for business cycle-dependent macroeconomic responses to an uncertainty shock. We find a significantly stronger response of real activity in recessions. Counterfactual simulations point to a greater e¤ectiveness of systematic monetary policy in stabilizing real activity in expansions.
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Utilizza questo identificativo per citare o creare un link a questo documento: https://hdl.handle.net/11577/3352341
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