HCC risk stratification after cure of hepatitis C in patients with compensated advanced chronic liver disease

Background&aims: Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is a main cause of morbidity and mortality in patients with advanced chronic liver disease (ACLD) due to chronic hepatitis C and who have achieved sustained virologic response (SVR). We elaborated risk stratification algorithms for de-novo-HCC-development after SVR and validated them in an independent cohort. Methods: Derivation cohort: 527 patients with pre-treatment ACLD and SVR to interferon-free therapy were evaluated for de-novo-HCC-development. Among others, alpha-fetoprotein (AFP) and non-invasive surrogates of portal hypertension including liver stiffness measurement (LSM) were assessed pre-/post-treatment. Validation cohort: 1500 patients with compensated ACLD (cACLD) from other European centers. Results: During a median follow-up (FU) of 41 months, 22/475 cACLD (4.6%) (1.45/100patient-years)vs.12/52 decompensated patients (23.1%, 7.00/100patient-years, p<0.001) developed de-novo-HCC. Since decompensated patients were at substantial HCC-risk, we focused on cACLD for all further analyses. In cACLD, post-treatment-values showed a higher discriminative ability for patients with/without de-novo-HCC-development during FU than pre-treatment-values or absolute/relative changes. Models based on post-treatment AFP≥4.6ngxmL-1-3points, alcohol consumption (males:>30g/d/females:>20g/d)-2points (optional), age≥59year-2points, LSM≥19.0kPa-1point, and albumin<42gxL-1-1point, accurately predicted de-novo-HCC-development (bootstrapped Harrel's C with and without considering alcohol:0.893 and 0.836). Importantly, these parameters also provided independent prognostic information in competing risk analysis and accurately stratified patients into low-(0-3points; ≈2/3 of patients) and high-risk (≥4points; ≈1/3) groups in the derivation (algorithm with alcohol consumption; 4-year HCC-risk:0%vs.16.5%) and validation (3.3%/17.5%) cohorts. An alternative approach based on age/alcohol (optional)/FU-LSM/FU-albumin (i.e., without FU-AFP) also showed a robust performance. Conclusions: Simple algorithms based on post-treatment age/albumin/LSM, and optionally, AFP and alcohol, accurately stratified de-novo-HCC-risk in cACLD patients with SVR. Approximately 2/3 were identified as having an HCC-risk <1%/y in both the derivation and validation cohort, thereby clearly falling below the cost-effectiveness threshold for HCC-surveillance. Lay summary: Simple algorithms based on age, alcohol consumption, results of blood tests (albumin and α-fetoprotein), as well as liver stiffness measurement after the end of hepatitis C treatment identify a large proportion (approximately 2/3) of patients with advanced but still asymptomatic liver disease who are at very low risk (<1%/year) of liver cancer development, and thus, might not need to undergo 6-monthly liver ultrasound.