Climate change-induced aridity is affecting agriculture in Northeast Italy

CONTEXT: The Mediterranean basin and specifically Northeast Italy are recognised as climate change hotspots. The latter is a key socio-economic area in Europe among the most agriculturally productive. However, increasingly frequent drought periods (typical of drier climates) are threatening agriculture. An extreme event occurred in the summer of 2022. It dramatically affected northern Italy, through high temperatures, water shortages and indirect processes (such as saltwater intrusion in the Po River Delta). OBJECTIVE: The objective is to map and quantify the agricultural areas in Northeast Italy at risk of climate zone shift due to human-induced climate change, providing a comprehensive overview of the main threatened agricultural systems and supporting the use of projections through historical data analysis. METHODS: We compared the distribution of current (1980 > 2016) and future (2071 > 2100; RCP8.5 scenario) climate zones for 8 main agricultural systems in 14 key provinces in Northeast Italy. Further analyses were performed on historical data to support future climate projections and to analyse agricultural drought during extreme events: (1) a multi-temporal Aridity Index (AI) to investigate aridification dynamics; (2) a focus on the 2022 event (drought and temperature extremes, a situation that is likely to occur more often in the future), combining a Vegetation Health Index (VHI) with a zonal investigation of high Land Surface Temperature (LST); (3) a climate focus for the Po River Delta cultural landscape. RESULTS AND CONCLUSIONS: The results show that the climate in Northeast Italy is evolving towards drier conditions, posing a challenge to agriculture. The Adriatic coast could become an Arid zone, a finding in line with historical observations. Rice fields will be most at risk (76% of their surface could become Arid in the future), as well as the irrigated lands that are essential for food security (around 20% expected in the Arid zone). Worthy is what is foreseen for crops on slopes (often not irrigated), which may experience drier summers (60% of the surface). SIGNIFICANCE: We identified the areas at risk of climate change at the farm scale in Northeast Italy, mapping where the threatened fields are located, what their extent is, and which agricultural systems are currently implemented. Such information would facilitate early action, guiding large-scale planning towards more resilient agriculture. Findings could promote sustainable water management plans, open the debate on which crops are worth growing based on future climate, and inspire more localised studies in the design of mitigation measures.