The death of Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi, almost certainly the designated heir of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, has exposed the contradictions at the heart of the Islamic Republic of Iran. The regime has opted to call for an election, even though they are not obliged to do so: the Supreme Leader could have simply chosen to replace Raisi with his first vice president. Nevertheless, these elections will present several political (as opposed to institutional) challenges. The problem will be turnout, the true indication of popular support for the regime, in a system where the opposition’s hands are tied. And what might happen if, in the meantime, the conflict between Israel and Hezbollah escalates, or indeed the one between Iran and Israel, which has so far been limited to posturing? All in all, this will be a delicate transition
Iran after Raisi: Elections Under the Revolutionary Guard’s Watch
Renzo Guolo
2024
Abstract
The death of Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi, almost certainly the designated heir of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, has exposed the contradictions at the heart of the Islamic Republic of Iran. The regime has opted to call for an election, even though they are not obliged to do so: the Supreme Leader could have simply chosen to replace Raisi with his first vice president. Nevertheless, these elections will present several political (as opposed to institutional) challenges. The problem will be turnout, the true indication of popular support for the regime, in a system where the opposition’s hands are tied. And what might happen if, in the meantime, the conflict between Israel and Hezbollah escalates, or indeed the one between Iran and Israel, which has so far been limited to posturing? All in all, this will be a delicate transition
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