Modeling the Future of Hydroelectric Power: A Cross-Country Study

This paper examines the role of hydropower in the context of the energy transition, using innovation diffusion models. The study analyzes time series data of hydropower generation from 1965 to 2022 by applying diffusion models and some other models, such as Prophet and ARIMA, for comparison purposes. The models are evaluated across diverse geographic regions, including America, Africa, Europe, Asia, and the Middle East, to determine their effectiveness in predicting hydropower generation trends. The analysis reveals that the GGM consistently outperforms other models in accuracy across all regions. In most cases, the GGM exhibits better performance compared to the Bass, ARIMA, and Prophet models, highlighting its potential as a robust forecasting tool for hydropower generation. This study emphasizes the critical role of accurate forecasting in energy planning and calls for further research to validate these findings and explore additional factors influencing hydropower generation evolution.