Strategies for the Decarbonization Transition in Italy: Energy Scenarios and Uncertainty

The transition towards a decarbonized energy system is a priority for Europe, which has set ambitious emission reduction targets. To define realistic and sustainable decarbonization pathways, it is essential to analyze energy scenarios that consider the broad range of available technologies and their associated impacts. However, the extensive uncertainties in the assumptions and input data used in models make it challenging to determine a robust strategy for the future of the energy system. In this study we use the open-source optimization model EnergyScope to generate decarbonization energy scenarios for Italy. We complement this with a Monte Carlo analysis to explore decarbonization scenarios by simulating various assumptions regarding technology costs. This approach allows us to assess the impact of different technologies under conditions of uncertainty, identifying those essential to a decarbonized energy mix and determining possible cost trade-off conditions that favor the adoption of certain technologies over others.