The Effect of Immediacy and Delay on Affective Reactions Toward Sure and Risky Gambles

Two pilot studies and 2 experiments (N = 1,168) explored whether delaying a sure (or highly likely) outcome would reduce its appeal relative to a more immediate riskier outcome. In our pilot studies, participants separately viewed a gamble with either a 100% (or highly likely) chance to win or a 50% chance to win, with the reward available either today or in 1 month. We found that the 100% was always more attractive than the 50% and that that highly likely gamble did not differ from the 50%. In Experiments 1 and 2 we shifted to within-subject designs in which participants evaluated a series of gambles with varying delay and likelihood of realization. In these settings, participants found a certain, delayed gamble less appealing than a riskier, immediate one, but only when the payout for both was in the near future. Conversely, for risky options, delaying a high-probability gamble made it as appealing as a riskier, immediate option—again, only when both would pay out soon. In summary, these findings suggest that risky outcomes are particularly sensitive to delays, more so than certain ones.