Patterns of brown bear damages to agro-livestock activities in North-Eastern Italy across 15 years

Livestock predations along with damages to croplands and beehives, are some of the main drivers of human-bear conflicts in shared landscapes. In the North-Eastern Italian Alps, the only brown bear Ursus arctos breeding population persists in the Autonomous Province of Trento, reintroduced via the LIFE Ursus program (1999–2004), while in Friuli Venezia Giulia (FVG) few dispersing males are detected annually. Both areas report damages mainly to agro-livestock activities near human settlements. This study aimed to: (i) describe bear-related damages to livestock (sum of preyed, injured, and missing individuals), agriculture, beehives, and structures using 15 years of claims data; (ii) assess temporal trends in damages near human settlements; and (iii) evaluate the spatial expansion of damages. We analysed official compensation claims from 2009 to 2023 in the Autonomous Province of Trento and FVG. Generalized Additive Models assessed proximity trends, while spatial expansion was analysed using 5 × 5 km grid-based hotspot analysis. Findings revealed that livestock and structural damages occurred significantly closer to human settlements across years; but a significant spatial expansion of damages was observed only in the Autonomous Province of Trento. Results highlight the need for effective prevention to reduce conflicts and support human-bear coexistence. Supplementary information: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1038/s41598-026-38371-4.