In this paper the Cournot oligopoly under uncertainty is analyzed by means of the Choquet Expected Utility (CEU) theory. Firms are supposed to be either optimistic (CEU maximizers who hold concave capacities) or pessimistic (convex capacities). Reaction functions, equilibrium quantities, prices and profits are derived and compared for different degrees of uncertainty and uncertainty attitude (optimism or pessimism). It is proved that optimists make higher profits than pessimists whenever uncertainty is sufficiently low. If it is high just optimists participate in the market making losses. An interpretation of the main results in terms of the market's level of maturity is provided.
COURNOT OLIGOPOLY UNDER STRATEGIC UNCERTAINTY WITH OPTIMISTIC AND PESSIMISTIC FIRMS
FONTINI, FULVIO
2005
Abstract
In this paper the Cournot oligopoly under uncertainty is analyzed by means of the Choquet Expected Utility (CEU) theory. Firms are supposed to be either optimistic (CEU maximizers who hold concave capacities) or pessimistic (convex capacities). Reaction functions, equilibrium quantities, prices and profits are derived and compared for different degrees of uncertainty and uncertainty attitude (optimism or pessimism). It is proved that optimists make higher profits than pessimists whenever uncertainty is sufficiently low. If it is high just optimists participate in the market making losses. An interpretation of the main results in terms of the market's level of maturity is provided.Pubblicazioni consigliate
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