Validation of a score for predicting fatal bleeding in patients receiving anticoagulation for venous thromboembolism

BACKGROUND: The only available score to assess the risk for fatal bleeding in patients with venous thromboembolism (VTE) has not been validated yet. METHODS: We used the RIETE database to validate the risk-score for fatal bleeding within the first 3 months of anticoagulation in a new cohort of patients recruited after the end of the former study. Accuracy was measured using the ROC curve analysis. RESULTS: As of December 2011, 39,284 patients were recruited in RIETE. Of these, 15,206 had not been included in the former study, and were considered to validate the score. Within the first 3 months of anticoagulation, 52 patients (0.34%; 95% CI: 0.27-0.45) died of bleeding. Patients with a risk score of <1.5 points (64.1% of the cohort) had a 0.10% rate of fatal bleeding, those with a score of 1.5-4.0 (33.6%) a rate of 0.72%, and those with a score of >4 points had a rate of 1.44%. The c-statistic for fatal bleeding was 0.775 (95% CI 0.720-0.830). The score performed better for predicting gastrointestinal (c-statistic, 0.869; 95% CI: 0.810-0.928) than intracranial (c-statistic, 0.687; 95% CI: 0.568-0.806) fatal bleeding. The score value with highest combined sensitivity and specificity was 1.75. The risk for fatal bleeding was significantly increased (odds ratio: 7.6; 95% CI 3.7-16.2) above this cut-off value. CONCLUSIONS: The accuracy of the score in this validation cohort was similar to the accuracy found in the index study. Interestingly, it performed better for predicting gastrointestinal than intracranial fatal bleeding.