Primary shelf-life prediction of a fresh cheese-based sauce using an accelerated test approach

The primary shelf life (PSL) of a fresh cheese-based pasta sauce was evaluated using an accelerated storage approach that combined multi-temperature testing and predictive modelling. Samples were stored at 4, 8 , and 12°C for up to 67 days, and microbiological counts, physicochemical indices, and sensory quality were measured. Kinetic models, including Arrhenius-based rate modelling, and a Weibull hazard analysis of sensory acceptability, were applied to estimate shelf-life endpoints. Results indicated minimal quality deterioration at 4°C, with the sauce remaining acceptable for ∼70 days. PSL decreased with increasing temperature, to 44.4 days at 8°C and 29.8 days at 12°C, corresponding to accelerated growth of spoilage microorganisms (e.g., Bacillus spp.) and the development of off-flavors. Microbiological and sensory shelf-life criteria were in close agreement, and the temperature dependence of quality loss followed Arrhenius kinetics (Q10 ∼2.8, Ea ∼16 kJ mol−1). Applying a time-temperature tolerance approach, the predicted PSL of the fresh cheese sauce was 49 ± 2 days. In conclusion, this multidisciplinary approach provided a robust shelf-life prediction, demonstrating that strict refrigeration markedly extends the sauce's stability compared to moderate temperature abuse.